The Nazi Plan to Nuke Manhattan

1. Goering's Secret Plan

Before WWII ended, planners under Hermann Goering may have possessed accurate estimates of the effects of a nuclear weapon, and studied a nuclear attack on New York City. The diagram below is from a collection of thousands of World War II photos from news and government sources, collected and republished in book form in 1946.* The source, according to the caption added by the editors, is "the files of Hermann Goering." The caption makes no explicit reference to atomic weapons, but the proportions of the damage zones are suggestive to anyone who has seen more modern estimates of nuclear weapon effects.




*Source: Pictorial History of the Second World War: Volume V: A Year of Victory, Wm. H. Wise and Co, Inc, New York, 1946, p 2459. Photo Credit: "Press Association."

What appear to be translations of the German annotations are given in the lower right hand corner of the picture. These read, in outer to inner order:

1. Zone of the first Demolition Area
2. Extreme Point of the Unit Area
3. Zone of the second Demolition Area
4. Target Point

The existence of this diagram suggests that German nuclear weapons work may have been more advanced than is commonly understood. The accuracy of the data used to make this diagram can be judged by comparing it to this data on the blast pressure effects of a 20 kiloton weapon (a likely 1st generation yield, this was the approximate yield of the Nagasaki bomb.)


source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions (table, "Summary of the Effects")

Overpressure of 2 psi would represent the outer limit of substantial destruction to brick buildings; in the 2-1 psi range windows would be blown out, people would be injured by flying glass, and other damage and some fires would occur, especially with wood frame structures. The Goering diagram includes diameter measurements, in meters, annotated near the top of the diagram. The following table gives these measurements, conversions to English units, and the corresponding blast data for the 20 kt bomb, with the later converted to blast diameter in miles:



* approximate; measurement partially obscured by mark on diagram 
** this measurement not given on diagram; estimated by measuring photo as published.

From this data it appears to me that this diagram is based on accurate estimates of the effects of a nuclear explosion with a yield approaching 20 kilotons. It therefore indicates that German atomic weapons research during WWII had advanced to the point that they possessed this data, and that they contemplated employing such a weapon against the United States.

What is especially chilling is that this diagram is sourced not to some technical group, but to Hermann Goering. This is the only known direct evidence, to my knowledge, of Goering's knowledge at any level of nuclear weapons research. But awareness and interest in this area on the part of Goering, one of the very highest and most powerful political/military leaders in the Third Reich, could well have provided great impetus and resources to German efforts to develop and use an atomic weapon. This connection moves the threat of a German nuke on Manhattan from theory to a real historical possibility.

NOTE: The above analysis is a lay interpretation. Other interpretations are possible, such as that the attack contemplated would have been a barrage of missiles with conventional explosive warheads. In this case the circles might represent zones of varying likelihood of missile impact, given their inherent inaccuracy around the central aiming point. Also, the possibility that the diagram was created by an Allied source for propaganda purposes cannot be discounted. The question of the diagram's authenticity would have to be addressed by study of the original, and the evidence of its provenance.


2. The German Atomic Bomb Design

The following design is purported to be from a German report composed immediately after WWII, and summarizing the state of their atomic weapon research. It is a schematic, not a buildable design, but if authentic it is the only extant evidence of a German atomic bomb design from this period. The report's authenticity is controversial, there is no title page and its authorship is unknown. But taken together with the above target diagram, it may represent an atomic threat to the United States that was forestalled only by the timely conquest of Germany.




source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4598955.stm

reference: Rainer Karlsch and Mark Walker, "New light on Hitler's bomb," physicsworld.com, June 1, 2005, http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/22270 (site requires free registration)